Methodology
This Q2'26F forecast was built from Uber's publicly disclosed segment financials (Q2'23 through Q1'26) and management commentary from the Q1'26 earnings call, then submitted as a locked snapshot ahead of Uber's August 5, 2026 print. Every base-case assumption below is defended against a specific historical trend or disclosed data point. No assumption is a bare guess.
Data Sources
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Q1'26 note: Mobility revenue +5% YoY vs GB +25% YoY: contra-revenue reclassification, not demand weakness.
Driver Tree Logic
Applied to Q2'25 actual MAPCs (180M) to get Q2'26F MAPCs.
Applied to Q2'25 actual monthly trips/MAPC (6.05x) to get Q2'26F trips/MAPC.
MAPCs times monthly trips/MAPC times 3 months.
12-quarter historical mean, applied to total trips to get Gross Bookings.
Mobility / Delivery / Freight % of total GB, applied to Gross Bookings to get segment GB.
Applied to segment GB to get segment revenue. Total revenue equals the sum of segments (segment tab is primary, consolidated revenue references it).
Applied directly to total Gross Bookings (top-down) to get consolidated Adj EBITDA, independent of the segment build-up below.
Applied to segment GB to get segment Non-GAAP Operating Income (the metric that replaced segment Adj EBITDA starting Q1'26).
Flat dollar deduction, added to segment NGOP sum to get total Non-GAAP Operating Income.
EBITDA Margin Scenarios
Guidance range: $2,700M to $2,800M Adj EBITDA, non-GAAP EPS $0.78 to $0.82.
Base-Case Assumption Defense
Pulled directly from the Defense / Source column of the model's Assumptions tab.
Q1'26 disclosed MAPC growth of 17% (Q1'26 PR, 10-Q, and call transcript all round to 17%; underlying MAPC levels of 199M vs. 170M imply ~17.1% precisely). Accelerating from ~14% a year ago. Uber One surpassed 50M members, +50% YoY, plus 7 new international market launches and insurance-driven US price reductions cited by management as drivers of new users. Source: Q1'26 earnings call transcript.
Trips/MAPC YoY growth has ranged +2% to +4% over the last 7 quarters (Q3'24 +4%, Q4'24 +3%, Q1'25 +3%, Q2'25 +2%, Q3'25 +4%, Q4'25 +3%, Q1'26 +3%) with no clear deceleration. We hold the Q1'26 rate of +3% flat. Balaji (CFO), Q1'26 call, on insurance price cuts: “we've seen that price reduction translate to acceleration in trip growth... we expect to see this translating to accelerating US business growth in 2026.”
Range-bound $14.10-$14.75 over 12 quarters, no directional trend. Historical mean = $14.43. Produces GB = $57.2B, inside guidance range $56.25-$57.75B. Offsetting forces: premium mix tailwind vs. insurance affordability headwind.
Base case 4.85%. Avg YoY additive margin expansion = +0.43pp over the last 4 quarters, applied to the Q2'25 base of 4.53%. Insurance savings tailwind per Balaji's explicit Q1'26 commentary.
YoY trend: Mobility mix falling every quarter for the past year (from ~51.6% to 49.1%). Q1'26 actual 49.1%. Mobility GB +20% YoY in Q1'26 (transcript).
Mix rising every quarter for the past year. Q1'26 at 48.4%. Delivery +23% vs Mobility +20% in Q1'26. Suburban expansion “very early innings,” 30% of Mobility users never used Eats (Balaji, Q1'26 call).
Straight-line from Q2'25. Freight returned to growth in Q1'26 but one quarter is insufficient to establish a new trend. Long-run structural decline as % of total.
Q2'25 comparable (30.7%). Q1'26 at 25.8% excluded: same contra-revenue reclassification as consolidated (Mobility revenue +5% vs GB +25%).
Trending up: Q2'25 18.9% → Q3'25 19.2% → Q4'25 19.2% → Q1'26 19.5%. No reclassification impact. 19.2% = average of the last 3 clean quarters.
Revenue consistently ~100.1-100.2% of GB. 12-quarter average = 100.15%.
Recent: Q4'24 7.1%, Q1'25 7.5%, Q4'25 7.4%, Q1'26 7.7%. Trending up. 7.5% = conservative mid-range.
Recent: Q4'24 3.2%, Q1'25 3.3%, Q4'25 3.6%, Q1'26 3.7%. 3.6% = Q4'25 level, conservative vs Q1'26.
Average of 4 disclosed quarters: Q4'24 -$41M, Q1'25 -$25M, Q4'25 -$18M, Q1'26 -$30M = -$28.5M avg.
Modeled input. Average of Q4'25 (-$996M) and Q1'26 (-$1,077M) = -$1,037M; -$1,097M implies slight additional growth.
Known Caveats
Uber stopped disclosing segment-level Adjusted EBITDA starting with the Q1'26 print. It was replaced by segment Non-GAAP Operating Income. Consolidated Adj EBITDA is still disclosed, but not at the segment level. This model keeps the two series separate rather than splicing them. The segment margin charts on the forecast page use the pre-Q1'26 Adj EBITDA basis, labeled accordingly.
Q2'24, Q3'24, and Q1'26 take rates are distorted by a disclosed reclassification of certain sales and marketing costs as contra-revenue. In Q1'26, Mobility revenue grew only 5% YoY versus Gross Bookings +25% YoY, an accounting effect, not a demand slowdown. Those quarters are treated as outliers rather than trend signal when setting take rate assumptions.
Uber only discloses trips/MAPC at the consolidated level. Segment Gross Bookings in this model are built from top-down mix assumptions, not from segment-level trip counts.